For information and research only. Not investment advice.
Classic quant
Permanent Portfolio
Harry Browne
Performance
Assuming an initial $100,000 · Benchmark: S&P 500
Hypothetical
YTD1Y5Y8YAll
CompoundFixed
Gains are reinvested — principal and returns grow together.
Backtest through 2026-07-01
Strategy backtestBenchmark · S&P 500
Strategy backtest — the rule-based portfolio, rebalanced on schedule with costs included.
Benchmark — S&P 500 (SPY) total return over the same window — what doing nothing but holding the market would earn.
Hypothetical backtest — not a real trading record. Simulated on public data from 2007-06: each position is bought only after the filing became public (using no information unavailable at the time), with trading costs deducted, on a total-return basis. Past performance does not predict future results.
All metrics below are computed on the strategy-backtest curve.
Return?
7.0%
Compound annual return over the sample.
Risk?
7.4%
How much returns swing (annualized stdev); lower is steadier.
Return vs risk?
0.95
Return ÷ volatility; higher is better.
Beat SPX?
−3.7%
Annualized gain over the S&P.
Excess?
+4.9%
The strategy's own annual excess, apart from the market.
Significance?
t=3.32 · strong
t-value: how solid the excess is — higher is more reliable.
Max DD?
−17.0%
Largest peak-to-trough fall.
Leverage?
0.17×
How many times it rises and falls together with the market.
Longest recovery?
26 mo
Longest wait from a peak back to a new high.
About
Harry Browne
Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio reduces the world to four economic seasons — prosperity, deflation, inflation, recession — and holds 25% each in stocks, long bonds, gold and cash, one asset built to shine in each season. Browne was an investment writer who twice ran for U.S. president; his design gives up on forecasting and aims only for calm, sailing quietly through the oil shocks, 2008 and every panic since.
Holdings & changes
Current holdingsPosition changes
Holdings last updated 2025-12-31
filed weights
Ticker
Name
Weight
vs last filing
SPY
State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
25.0%
—
TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
25.0%
—
GLD
SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold Shares
25.0%
—
BIL
State Street SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF
25.0%
—
Risk
This strategy mechanically reproduces public research / published methods; the backtest includes trading costs but not taxes or market impact. A rule that worked historically may not work in the future.
Past / backtested performance does not predict the future. Masterfolio is an information service / publisher, not an investment adviser.